The Best Ever & The Greatest
It’s that time of year again. As LeBron marches through the playoffs and continues to erase Michael Jordan from the records from the books one by one, we must have the obligatory debate every morning after a great LeBron performance, who is the real GOAT? As a fan of both players in real time I can handle this issue a little more objectively than most. I grew up emulating both players and still have their apparel in my closet, unlike so many others, I have two horses in the race. I’m good with following the facts wherever they lead.
I have to admit, even the Jordan fan in me is annoyed by the most popular argument in support of MJ, 6–0. What to some people sounds like a bullet proof argument I can’t see anything but selection bias. Of the 15 seasons that MJ played, these are objectively his best seasons. They did not occur in chronological order, separated by two years on in which MJ did not play and another in which he lost in the conference semis to the Orlando Magic. By making the selection criteria, “years MJ went to the Finals” one is knowingly or unknowingly selecting for the best six teams and years of Michael’s career. Michael’s own trainer is a mentor of mine and I can vouch for the goal. It is to win a championship EVERY year. Not only years your team makes it to the finals. The funniest part about people declaring 6–0, is they are demonstrating the type of mindset MJ abhorred. A cooler says 6–0, a cleaner says 6–9. Most obvious line but MJ’s fans lack the mindset that made MJ successful.
Most people ignore the 9 seasons where MJ did not make the finals because his team was not good enough. Follow the logic. If making a finals appearance is in large part predicated on team success, why is a Finals stat the first stat many toss out in an individual greatness debate? Back to reality. It’s not a good stat. People use this stat because it confirms what they already believe and fits in with narrative fallacy. Narrative fallacy is when we look back at past events with the knowledge of the future and weave explanations or force a logical link that did not appear in real time. The narratives that surround 6–0 rely on selection bias and obfuscate the totality of MJ’s career. Unless we are going to arbitrarily select the 6 best seasons from everyone’s career, this logic is a dead end. Nobody doubts that on his 6 best teams MJ played his best. What people are trying to determine who would be the best all by themselves. Team stats are not a good place to start.
Stepping away from Michael and LeBron can give us some much needed perspective. A young Shaquille O’Neal knocked off Michael’s Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semis in 1995. That was not enough to solidify Shaq among the all time greats. He moved out west to the Lakers, but when he finally won his 1st championship, a young Kobe Bryant was on the team and thus Shaq’s rings were tainted. Could he do it without Kobe? Could Kobe do it without Shaq? These followed Shaq and Kobe the way 6–0 followed Jordan. If every player were held to the equally arbitrary Kobe/Shaq standard of needing to win one without your best co-star then the greatness order would need a lot of reordering. Kobe, Shaq, Tim Duncan, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant if you say Russ or Harden was his best teammate have all won without their best teammate. Michael’s record of 1–9 without Pippen is far worse than any of the names mentioned. Don’t like it. The selection of playoff games without best teammate is just as arbitrary as selecting finals appearances. It’s 6–0 & 1–9, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. It’s just that easy to create a framing effect.
We only use the Kobe/Shaq standard to diminish players rather than using it to control for individual performance. In truth, the Kobe/Shaq standard from an analytical standpoint does tell us more about individual performance than the finals appearances standard. As often as particularly contemporary fans love to complain about super-teams, just about every team to make the finals ever was a super-team. The finals appearance standard tells us about how a player performed on a great team. We learn more about an individual’s performance on a less talented team than a talented one. If one is trying to objectively determine who is the best individual player, unlike the comment boards, one will weight individual statistics over team statistics.
If you actually get into the numbers, there are two players who jump off your screen. Lucky for me, they are my two favorite players. Sorry to everyone else, but if you’re not named Michael Jordan or LeBron James your analytical case for individual greatness does not put you in the GOAT conversation. In fairness to both, I’ll skip the individual awards. Anyone else who won an MVP in either era got a participation trophy. In terms of career stats, Michael has more points and steals. LeBron has more rebounds, assists, and blocks. LeBron will likely pass Michael in both points and steals before his career is over, but will probably never match his average scoring. LeBron does have more than 3,000 more assists and 2,000 rebounds. The same advantages for each hold true for post season play as well. Some will undoubtedly take issue with aggregate stats. There’s some validity to this critique and we should look into some more advanced analytics.
In terms of shooting percentages LeBron is better from the field and three point range while Michael is the better free-throw shooter. Looking into more advanced metrics Jordan’s career player efficiency rating (PER) is 27.9. LeBron’s is 27.7. In the playoffs Jordan elevated to 28.6 and LeBron’s to 28.2. Neck and neck but slight edge to MJ. If we throw in win shares (WS), a statistic that attempts to divvy up team result to individual effort, LeBron is King. Michael’s 214 regular season WS and 39.8 in the playoffs are second to LeBron’s 219.4 and 48.8. The way WS is calculated, Jordan may be “punished” for playing on better teams. More is needed to tip the balance. This is why this debate has remained relevant for over a decade, these two players are just so close. Value over replacement player (VORP) calculates a players performance vs an average player at their position. Ostensibly, VORP states how much a player deviates from the average. Bigger is better. In VORP Michael put up 104.4 in the regular season and 22.8 in the playoffs to LeBron’s 124.9 regular season 31.4 playoffs. These numbers indicate that LeBron is better than the average small forward today than Michael was better than the average shooting guard in his day.
The truth is, this debate isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. As a guy who grew up emulating both, I can make a case either way and without the cognitive fallacies of the pundit and fan class. If you are inclined to make a case for Michael Jordan, then his offensive prowess, efficiency, and on ball defense make up the bulk of the rational argument. If you feel inclined to argue for LeBron James then his physicality, passing, rebounding, deviation from the other players of his generation, advanced analytics, and ability to guard all players 1–5 at any time might make up a rational argument.
In addition to the stupidity of the 6–0 argument is the clutch shooting argument. This can be traced almost exclusively to one Skip Bayless who’s entire career is predicated on taking click bait style takes. Much of the stupidity surrounding this debate and many others can be laid at punditry who approach their jobs as Bayless and so many others in and outside sports do. LeBron contrary to reputation now has more playoff game winners that Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant combined for in their careers. The pundit class which anointed those two the most clutch has been painfully slow to update their stats. Let’s end this once and for all. As of my writing this Michael was 5–11 45% on go ahead shots in the final 5 seconds of 4th quarter or overtime. LeBron is 7–15 47% in the same situation. The truth is better than the fiction, if you’re old enough like I am to have watched them both, you saw the two most clutch to ever lace up. Does that really make you mad?
Boxing has a better way of handling this debate than basketball does at this current moment. In boxing Ali is known as the greatest, but Floyd is known as The Best Ever. When you ask Floyd about the moniker, he will tell you, it’s more than about boxing. He played the entire fight game better than anyone else. In a sport that wrecks almost all who enter the arena, he walked out undefeated and wealthy. Did he fight Foreman or Frazier and almost die in the ring? No. That’s why he calls himself The Best Ever. Ali on the other hand did lose more than once, then why do we all call him the greatest. Ali was a heavyweight who fought with other heavyweights, and although he did not come out unscathed, he persevered under adversity that no one else could bear, and for that, we know him by only two words, The Greatest. Maybe because they are my two favorite sports, but this analogy transfers over to basketball flawlessly. I will always see Michael Jordan, my childhood idol, as The Best Ever. He engineered the perfect story as a back drop the my youth and inspired me to get into the game. LeBron will always be The Greatest. The individual stats each has amassed are nearly identical and just like in boxing, I have to give the edge to the one who battles among heavyweights. I grew up thinking Jordan was the best, unlike so many others I didn’t close my mind in my teenage years and I have allowed the data and what I have witnessed with my own eyes to update my childhood narrative. The “perfect” narrative means you played the game better than anyone else, not that you were the best player. Subtle but important distinction, and there is room to celebrate each.
Michael & LeBron, The Best Ever & The Greatest. Isn’t that whole lot easier? Prefer GOAT & King? Either way, this argument is getting progressively more irrational with age, TBE & The Greatest is the definitive way out of not sounding stupid in these debates.
